Valmonte inventory at a 2 year low

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4033 Via Valmonte – sold for a very low $1.12m (or about $180/foot under market) in January 2016

 

If you want excitement, watch the stock market

With the first month of 2016 in the books, I want to give a brief market update for those of you keeping an eye on things.  In general, after 6 closed sales in December, January was a slow month.  2 homes closed escrow; 2 homes came on the market, both on the same street; 3 more accepted offers; and now a lonely 5 remain for sale.  So what?  Good question.  Certainly the stock market has been more exciting, but what all of these numbers point to is that it is high time to be a home seller in Valmonte.  I personally know of at least 3 people seriously looking to move into Valmonte, and I’m 100% sure those aren’t the only 3 people either.  Add to the mix interest rates under 4% and you end up with some stiff competition for well priced homes when they hit the market.

The low inventory coupled with pent up demand for move-in ready homes is a clear indicator that the local housing market in Valmonte is far from balanced.  The current absorption rate, also known as months supply, is down to a little over one month.  When you apply a 12 month rolling average, it gets a little better with 2 months of supply.  However, in comparison to a year ago, there was a 4 month supply, and in 2010, the recent market bottom, there was an 8 month supply.  This isn’t good news if you are looking for a home in Valmonte, especially considering the median home price is $2 million.  But if you are a seller, it doesn’t get much better than this.  With lower than normal competition, and low interest rates, the seller is in the driver’s seat.  Price your house reasonably, and I can promise you that buyers will come, probably in droves; especially if your target price is around $1.5m or less.

January by the numbers

  • Closed Sales (2): 4033 Via Valmonte – $1.12m ($474/foot); 4021 Via Nivel $1.425m ($642/foot)
  • In Escrow (5): 2737 Via la Selva ($1.495m); 2815 Via la Selva ($2,495m); 2921 Via la Selva ($3.295m); 300 Via Alcance ($1.689m); 3025 PV Drive N ($1.987m)
  • On the market: 5 listings – call for the current list.

 

 

Valmonte Home Sales Keep Pace in October

Chugging Right Along     October 2015 sales of single family homes in Valmonte kept pace with September and is contributing to 2015 going down as one of the best years in recent memory.  In all 4 homes sold in October priced from $1.137m to 1.65m all in the eastern part of Valmonte “where the sun always shines.”  Three of the houses were listed on the MLS and took anywhere from 7 to 126 days to sell; the fourth, on Via Valmonte sold off-market for $1.55m.  The selling to asking price averaged 94% as all marketed homes required price reductions to sell.   As for active listings, there are 10 homes listed for sale in Valmonte, priced from $1.338m for a smaller home on PV Drive North to an updated one story on Via Palomino priced at $2.295m. For the year, the average sales price through October 31st is a record $1.539m – up about 14% from 2014.  On top of that, there have already been 49 sales through September 30th this year, compared to 34 homes sold in all of 2014.  Historically speaking, on a price/foot basic, prices have rallied 28% from market lows set in 2012 ($509/foot); however, the average price/foot is off 11% from market highs set in 2005 ($729/foot) and 2006 ($728/foot).

What is the take-away from all of this?     As the traditional summer selling season comes to an end, there are still plenty of opportunities to buy and sell a home in Valmonte.  The lending market is still favorable to well qualified buyers with rates hovering in the 4% range.  For those looking to buy, this may be your best chance.  Home prices are expected to continue to rise moderately in 2016 and interest rates are likely to see a moderate increase as well.  Inventory remains below the “balanced” level of 5 months supply with a current 2.3 months supply, indicating this is still a seller’s market.  However, as homes continue to sit empty or with sellers eager to move, this may be the chance to negotiate a good price for your next home.

See you in the neighborhood . . . .

208 Alcance

SOLD: 208 Via Alcance – $1.137 gets you this 1800′ fixer

300 Alcance

FOR SALE: 300 Alcance – $1.699 remodeled and across from the school

2014 Valmonte Home Prices Rise 3% and Where We’re Heading in 2015

February 24, 2015, Palos Verdes Estates, CA

Valmonte 2014 Real Estate in Review  

After a gangbusters 2013 where we saw a 21% year-over-year increase in values (based on price/foot), the Valmonte real estate market cooled off a bit in 2014.  Values continued to rise, but at a more modest, and much more sustainable 3.14% year-over-year increase.  While the price increases slowed, the average Days on Market (DOM), an important measure of how long it takes a house to sell, dropped from 67 days in 2013 to 52 days in 2014 (this was the lowest average DOM since 2007).  Looking at another key figure, the asking vs selling price comparison remained tight with houses selling at 97.74% of the asking price in 2014 compared to 98.26% in 2013.  Compare this to 2009 when houses were selling at 93.52% of the asking price – a tough market for sellers.  Finally, another sign of strong seller’s market is the fact that 11 of the 34 houses sold in 2014 sold at or above the asking price – another improvement from 2009 when not one house sold over asking.  This continues suggests that there is fierce competition for well priced, move-in ready homes and sellers have their choice of buyers.

According to the S&P/Case-Shiller CA-Los Angeles Home Price Index, prices were up 5.1% year-over-year in the Los Angeles area in 2014.  This suggests that our local Valmonte market is relatively on par with the general market in the greater Los Angeles area, albeit at a higher priced entry point to move in.  This higher entry price could explain the slightly lower YOY appreciation.

Figure 1a. 3 year Valmonte SFR sales statistics

Year # Houses Sold Average Price Average Price/Foot Year/Year % change Ave. Days on Market
2012 41 $1,213,049 $509.05 -2.73% 132
2013 33 $1,513,765 $616.62 21.13% 67
2014 34 $1,354,569 $635.98 3.14% 52

 

2015 Is Off to a Slower Start

Since the new year, 6 homes have closed at a price per square foot of $607.91 with selling prices between $799k and $2.05m.  The average days on market is 101 days – a considerable uptick from last year’s 52 days (one of these homes was a short sale which skew the numbers to the higher side).  In addition to closed sales, there are 7 homes in back-up and 2 listed as pending.  The majority of these homes were listed in the latter part of 2014, during which home sales are traditionally slower than the peak spring and summer months.

Active Listings

There are currently 7 Valmonte homes for sale as of today priced between $1.475m for a 1742 square foot traditional home on Via Nivel to 3,500 square foot traditional home on a corner lot on PV Drive North in the Eucalyptus grove priced just under $2.2m.  The average list price/foot is $685/foot – a nice bump from last year’s $635/foot – but time will tell if these homes sell close to that price.  Three of these listings have been on the market for 120 days or more, a good indication that they will likely need a considerable price reduction before buyers are ready to move in.  In fact, their respective prices confirm this – all are priced considerably more than the average price per square foot of the other listings.

What’s on the horizon as we head into the traditionally busy selling season?  If you are a seller, you’re in luck.  Demand for Valmonte remains strong with many young families looking to enjoy the peaceful tree lined streets and top rated Palos Verdes Schools.  In addition, financing continues to be favorable to buyers with low rates and banks willing to lend.  If you are a buyer, I would qualify ASAP for a solid loan with a good mortgage banker and be ready to write a strong offer when your dream house is on the market.  And, of course, whether you are a buyer or a seller, I would suggest you call me to help you reach your real estate goals while the market is hot!

For a custom price analysis of your home or for tips on buying or selling a home, please feel free to email directly at kyle@kyledanielsrealestate.com.  You can also visit my website at www.kyledanielsrealestate.com.

Thanks for reading!

Fall Has Arrived

It’s hard not to notice that Fall is upon us, despite the summerlike weather that keeps teasing us. Even a walk through this West Coast neighborhood will tell you leaves are changing color in their decent from their branches. The shorter days give us more time to enjoy the interior comforts of home like cooking and reading by the fire. For me its time to get the winter crops planted. This year I’m going with Kale, Beets, Lettuce, and I added to my strawberries in hope that I have a more robust Spring harvest. If you haven’t tried Kale, now is as a good a time as any as inspiration for using it is off the charts. In fact, if a vegetable can be trendy, Kale is arguably giving those Kardashian clowns a run for their money. We like to use it in everything from dinners sides after a quick blanching to adding to fruit smoothies. It’s up to you to enjoy this great time a year, and don’t forget to keep your ears open for the calls of our local owls.

Beat the heat and fog!

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So where do you go when it’s cooking inland and the beach is blanketed in fog? The Mall? Yep, the mall! I never thought I’d be heading away from the beach on a hot summer weekend such as this, but with a two year old in tow, we headed up the hill to the Promenade on the Peninsula for (pause), stay with me, the Fountain! And we weren’t alone. At least a dozen other parents had the same great idea and not only did the little guy have a blast, we ran into several neighbors while we ate lunch and kept on eye on the water fun. Yes, you do catch an occasional whiff of the obnoxious perfume odor billowing out of Abercrombie, but the screams of joy and laughter of the wet little ones makes up for it. And as we headed back home, the view of the fog creeping inland with the ocean breeze was all we needed to assure us we made the right call. Now, if only we had a pool in our backyard….

Happy Summer: Great guide to building raised garden beds

Why recreate the wheel when there’s great stuff already out there.  I’ll add photos from my own experience but so as not to waste anytime, here’s a great article from a website I’m addicted to – http://www.houzz.com.  Happy Summer

Finally, New Valmonte Listings!

I don’t know about you but I love anticipation.  As someone in the real estate business I guess I get easily excited about what the market will bring next (cheap thrills, right?).  Since the listings have been limited lately, I’m constantly wondering what will be next.  Well, market watchers like me don’t have to wait any longer.  Steve Watts of Re/Max PV just listed 2 Valmonte homes.  The first is in the “Valmonte grove” at 2517 Via Anita.  It’s a nicely appointed 4 bedroom/3 bath “California Ranch cottage” at nearly 2,200 square feet on a 7,100 foot lot.  Listed at $1.295m it’s sure to see some lookers in the coming days.  The second home is 3819 Via la Selva and Via Picaposte.  This California Ranch is 3 bedrooms/2 baths in 1,900 feet and is listed at $1.495m.  Why the premium price?  The best reason I can find is the 12,744′ corner lot.  The pricing of both properties represent a new found optimism in the local real estate market that hasn’t been seen in several years.  Now the next thing I’m looking for is to see how long it takes for these to sell and at what price.  I’m not much of a gambler, but I’m willing to bet that if these sell close to asking, we’re going to continue to see many more hit the market this year as we watch scared sellers awake from a long hibernation.